Escenarios futuros de inundaciones sobre la costa de la Bahía San Antonio, Río Negro, Argentina. A partir de modelados por el efecto del aumento del nivel del mar.

Abstract

Hydraulic modeling emerges as an essential resource, both for forensic and predictive studies, in coastal cities prone to flooding. This study, focused on the Bay of San Antonio, employs the Iber software to analyze the impact of climate change and storm surge events. Its primary objective is to assess future flood threats, considering scenarios of sea-level rise, and provide key information for mitigation planning and risk reduction. Located in the tourist area of San Antonio Oeste, the work addresses historical issues dating back to the 1930s. The methodology integrates the creation of tidal tables, Iber modeling, and result validation with historical data and local input, contributing to understanding coastal dynamics and extracting information to propose effective measures against the growing threats of flooding. The results reveal some significant flooding patterns in the Bay of San Antonio. Scenarios of tide with storm surge and projections for the year 2100 indicate vulnerable areas that persist and expand, affecting various neighborhoods. The model highlights current issues and limitations of existing measures, such as the elevation of the Circunvalación Road. Validation with local data supports the accuracy of hydraulic models, identifying key areas for mitigation strategies and emphasizing the need to consider extraordinary scenarios in the future.