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dc.contributor.authorRivera, Juan-
dc.contributor.authorMalaeka, Robo-
dc.contributor.authorBianchi, Emilio-
dc.contributor.authorMulleady, Cristobal-
dc.date.accessioned2024-05-28T11:55:11Z-
dc.date.available2024-05-28T11:55:11Z-
dc.date.issued2024-03-
dc.identifier.citationRivera, J., Robo, M., Bianchi, E., & Mulleady, C. (2024). Impact of climate change on the streamflow in northern Patagonia. Journal of Water and Climate Change, jwc2024492.es_ES
dc.identifier.issn2040-2244es_ES
dc.identifier.urihttp://rid.unrn.edu.ar/handle/20.500.12049/11607-
dc.description.abstractStreamflow simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b (ISIMIP2b) were analyzed to evaluate future changes in surface water resources over northern Patagonia, a region that contributes significantly to the total hydropower production of Argentina. Ten global hydrological models (GHMs), forced by four general circulation models, effectively capture the winter streamflow maxi- mum in the Negro river basin. However, most of them face challenges in simulating the late-spring pulse due to a misrepresentation of temperature over the higher elevations of the Andes. We quantified the future streamflow evolution using a multi-model ensemble from a subset of the best-performing GHMs under the RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 emission scenarios for two temporal horizons. According to the multi-model ensemble, there is a projected decrease in the annual streamflow of the analyzed rivers, which is more important considering the RCP6.0 scenario during the late 21st century, reaching up to 40% relative to the 1979–2005 reference period. This reduction is attributed to the projected precipitation decline in the headwaters of the Negro river basin in response to changes in the surface pressure patterns. These results have implications for regional water authorities for the development of adaptation plans considering future demand projections.es_ES
dc.language.isoeses_ES
dc.publisherIWA publishinges_ES
dc.relation.urihttps://iwaponline.com/jwcces_ES
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/-
dc.titleImpact of climate change on the streamflow in northern Patagoniaes_ES
dc.typeArticuloes_ES
dc.rights.licenseCreative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)-
dc.description.filiationRivera, Juan. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) - Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Mendoza; Argentina.es_ES
dc.description.filiationMalaeka, Robo. National School of Meteorology (ENM). Toulouse; France.es_ES
dc.description.filiationBianchi, Emilio. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET). Río Negro; Argentina.es_ES
dc.description.filiationMulleady, Cristobal. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica (CNEA), Centro Atómico Bariloche. Río Negro, Argentina.es_ES
dc.subject.keywordclimate changees_ES
dc.subject.keywordfuture projectionses_ES
dc.subject.keywordglobal hydrological modelses_ES
dc.subject.keywordPatagoniaes_ES
dc.subject.keywordstreamflowes_ES
dc.type.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersiones_ES
dc.subject.materiaMeteorología y Ciencias Atmosféricases_ES
dc.origin.lugarDesarrolloUniversidad Nacional de Río Negroes_ES
dc.description.reviewtruees_ES
dc.description.resumenStreamflow simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b (ISIMIP2b) were analyzed to evaluate future changes in surface water resources over northern Patagonia, a region that contributes significantly to the total hydropower production of Argentina. Ten global hydrological models (GHMs), forced by four general circulation models, effectively capture the winter streamflow maxi- mum in the Negro river basin. However, most of them face challenges in simulating the late-spring pulse due to a misrepresentation of temperature over the higher elevations of the Andes. We quantified the future streamflow evolution using a multi-model ensemble from a subset of the best-performing GHMs under the RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 emission scenarios for two temporal horizons. According to the multi-model ensemble, there is a projected decrease in the annual streamflow of the analyzed rivers, which is more important considering the RCP6.0 scenario during the late 21st century, reaching up to 40% relative to the 1979–2005 reference period. This reduction is attributed to the projected precipitation decline in the headwaters of the Negro river basin in response to changes in the surface pressure patterns. These results have implications for regional water authorities for the development of adaptation plans considering future demand projections.es_ES
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.492-
dc.relation.journalTitleJournal of Water and Climate Changees_ES
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