La crítica de J.M. Keynes al proyecto de matematizar la probabilidad de J. Bernoulli

Abstract

A hundred years after the publication of A Treatise on Probability, by J. M. Keynes, this article inquires about its relevance in the history of the concept of probability. After reviewing the emergence and evolution of the modern concept of probability until the beginning of the 20th century, a nodal point is identified in the publication of J. Bernoulli’s Ars Conjectandi at the beginning of the 18th century, where it was proposed for the first time to treat the entire field of probable conjectures through the mathematical tools of the doctrine of possibilities. This article seeks to understand the Treatise as a reaction to this project embodied in the 18th century by the laplacian classical school and in the 19th century by the Frequentist school. After presenting Keynes’s main arguments against the conception of probability as a necessarily measurable entity and therefore treatable through the mathematical tools of the doctrine of possibilities, reflections are drawn on the relevance and topicality of the Treatise