Inflación y balance de pagos durante el gobierno de Milei. Una mirada crítica del discurso oficial

Abstract

Just over a year after Javier Milei´s government took office, the monthly inflation rate fell from 12.8 % to around 2.5 %. According to the official narrative, this outcome was made possible by significant fiscal adjustment and monetary tightening, with the exchange rate policy and other elements that distinguish it from an orthodox stabilization plan playing only a complementary role. In this article, we argue that these elements, presented as secondary by the government, along with other external sector determinants, have been key to the achieved results. The effectiveness of the plan is based on different fundamentals than those proposed by Milei’s economic team, which implies that the transmission channels and future risks are also different. Our contribution is both empirical and theoretical: we present an analysis of the most recent stabilization plan and critically discuss its theoretical foundations. Our alternative interpretation suggests that the disinflation process is primarily explained by the dynamics of the external sector and that is also where its main vulnerabilities lie.