Riesgo de Inundación del río Azul en zonas urbanas de Lago Puelo, Chubut, Argentina.

Abstract

The study analyzes the flood risk in the Isla Sur and Isla Norte neighborhoods of Lago Puelo, Chubut, Argentina, due to the fluvial-morphological dynamics of the Azul River. Using geomorphological, hydrodynamic tools and statistical analysis of historical flow and precipitation data, the causes and magnitude of flood events affecting the region were evaluated. Urban growth without adequate planning, combined with climate change, has increased the vulnerability of these areas. The morphometric analysis of the Azul River basin allowed for a better understanding of the hydrological response of the system to extreme weather events, concluding that urbanization and geomorphological changes over the past decades have exacerbated the flood risk in the study area. Hydrodynamic simulations were performed with the IBER software on a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to model different flood scenarios associated with return periods of 2, 10, 50, and 100 years, identifying areas at highest risk. The results suggest that the current infrastructure capacity is insufficient to mitigate the effects of future floods, highlighting the need for additional protective works and more sophisticated studies.