Índices de actividad económica provincial en base a un modelo factorial dinámico. Argentina 1997-2019

Abstract

We estimate a quarterly coincident index of regional economic activity for each Argentinean province between 1997 and 2019. A set of series related to the economic cycle is considered assuming that a common unobservable factor can be estimated using dynamic factor models. The lack of enough official statistics with a homogenous methodology for the estimation of regional economic indexes, justifies this attempt. The estimation of these indexes allows us to compare the economic cycle between provinces, accepting the trade-off between the homogeneity of the economic variables used in the estimation and the economic specificity of each province.